CNY Bonus Edition

Hello dear readers,
This is a bonus edition based on request.
Few days ago, I was asked to recommend some KLSE stocks.
It sounds like a piece of cake? But to me, to recommend a stock in KLSE means to evaluate all potential stocks and choose the best among the best. I will need more time to cover every stocks in my pocket. At the moment, I managed to cover only plantation stocks in KLSE, including KLK, Batu Kawan, IOICorp, and Genting Plantation.

These 4 stocks are all plantation stock, so, I would just skip the background and focus on the numbers.

KLK (2445)
	2011	2010	2009	2008	2007
Revenue	10,743,252	7,490,626	6,658,308	7,855,425	5,067,627
Profit Attributable To Shareholders	1,645,531	1,067,270	642,611	1,089,505	714,449
Historical EPS (cents)	147.56	95.06	57.51	97.72	65.18
Gross Dividend Per Share (cents)	85	60	40	70	50
No. Of Ordinary Shares Issued ('000)
Reserves	6,019,591	4,951,146	4,579,951	4,483,036	3,864,995
Shareholders' Equity	7,073,649	6,005,204	5,634,009	5,537,094	4,919,053
NAV Per Share ($)	6.33	5.34	4.98	4.92	4.33
Price Earnings Ratio (PER) (Price/EPS)	14.3	17.9	24	9.8	20.3
Return On Equity (ROE) [%]	22.2	16.9	10.9	18.8	14.1
Debt To Equity Ratio	5.9	7.2	8.1	11.2	11.5

BKAWAN(1899)
	2011	2010	2009	2008	2007
Revenue	238,140	224,426	238,148	284,087	219,242
Profit Attributable To Shareholders	779,468	567,452	337,348	505,539	348,413
Historical EPS (cents)	186.5	134.2	79.2	117.3	80.4
Gross Dividend Per Share (cents)	95	65	40	64	50
No. Of Ordinary Shares Issued ('000)
Reserves	3,233,763	2,694,623	2,466,268	2,356,269	2,072,119
Shareholders' Equity	3,733,865	3,188,981	2,961,613	2,850,679	2,571,884
NAV Per Share ($)
Price Earnings Ratio (PER) (Price/EPS)	8	9.2	11.7	6.4	10.8
Return On Equity (ROE) [%]	21.2	18.1	11.6	18.1	13.9
Debt To Equity Ratio

IOICorp (1961)
	2011	2010	2009	2008	2007
Revenue	16,154,251	12,542,962	14,600,474	14,665,369	8,952,727
Profit Attributable To Shareholders	2,290,513	2,065,116	1,063,174	2,412,187	1,650,964
Historical EPS (cents)	34.75	32.96	16.62	36.85	24.13
Gross Dividend Per Share (cents)	17	17	8	17	7
No. Of Ordinary Shares Issued ('000)
Reserves	11,357,574	10,112,629	7,721,610	7,777,573	7,113,377
Shareholders' Equity	11,389,679	9,563,236	8,368,826	8,065,310	6,886,591
NAV Per Share ($)	187	169	140	140	124
Price Earnings Ratio (PER) (Price/EPS)	15.2 (e)	15.2 (e)
Return On Equity (ROE) [%]	19.52	21.29	11.75	27.67	21.52
Debt To Equity Ratio	21.77	8.16	37.08	36.65	11.67

GENP (2291)
	2011	2010	2009	2008	2007
Revenue	988,583	755,567	1,036,003	906,415	576,578
Profit Attributable To Shareholders	324,207	237,970	377,227	348,056	173,218
Historical EPS (cents)	42.8	31.1	49.4	45.7	22.9
Gross Dividend Per Share (cents)	9.4	6.8	7.5	10.3	5.1
No. Of Ordinary Shares Issued ('000)
Reserves	2,377,938	2,105,013	1,919,058	1,633,959	1,331,105
Shareholders' Equity	2,868,660	2,548,055	2,346,582	2,064,309	1,757,363
NAV Per Share ($)	378	336.2	310.1	273.4	234.2
Price Earnings Ratio (PER) (Price/EPS)
Return On Equity (ROE) [%]	12	9.6	16.9	18	10.2
Debt To Equity Ratio

Conclusion:
1) Numbers that speak:

a) KLK, intrinsic value = RM23.17, current market price = RM25.72, slightly over valued.
b) BKAWAN, intrinsic value = RM 14.97, market price = RM 19.24, over valued.
c) IOICORP, intrinsic value = RM 3.87, market price = RM 5.40, over valued.
d) GENP, intrinsic value = RM 5.11, market price = RM9.45, over valued.

2) In general, we see plantation stocks are overpriced in current market condition with KLK worth waiting for a dip in price. I would recommend to add buying position in KLK if the price dropped below RM22.00 level.

3) However, with recent tension in IRAN (economic sanction), further increase of oil price is highly possible. The stock price may sky rocketed and left you behind. In such situation, I will just wait the price to drop to my calculation. If I don't catch it, I will just let it go. Well, you may go and chase the price up, and yes, you may end up walk away with profits. But I will not do that because that is not my style.

Suggestion:
1) I welcome readers to send analysis request on a particular stock. you can do that by either email me privately or write it down at the comment column. I will try my best to address every query. Once again, thanks for your interest.